50 percent statistic untrue?
The 50% projection was not erroneous at the time it was made, but it was
only a prediction and projection of what would happen to people getting
married at that time if current trends continued. In 1993, the Census Bureau
revised the projection down to 40%. This, too, is only a projection based
on current trends.
--John Crouch
"Pollster Louis Harris has written, "The idea that half of
American marriages are doomed is one of the most specious pieces of statistical
nonsense ever perpetuated in modern times."
"It all began when the Census Bureau noted that during one year, there
were 2.4 million marriages and 1.2 million divorces. Someone did the
math without calculating the 54 million marriages already in existence,
and presto, a ridiculous but quotable statistic was born.
"Harris concludes, "Only one out of eight marriages will end in
divorce.
In any single year, only about 2 percent of existing marriages will break
up."
--J. Allan Petersen in Better Families, quoted on the Christianity.Net
home page, "Preaching Resources," Copyright(c) 1996 by Christianity
Today, Inc./LEADERSHIP journal -- Summer 1996 Vol.XVII, No.3, Page 69
More on the
50% projection issue
Jeanne Hinds (jmhinds@nando.net) wrote:
: That divorce stastitic (50% of marriage end in divorce) has been
: debunked by legitimate researchers due to its poor data analysis. When
: divorces are tracked by *year* in which the couple married, the divorce
: rate is closer to 18- 22%. And the reason why combined divorce
: statistics have risen over the years is due to the advent of no-fault
: divorces. Marriages had a tendency of staying together when alimony
: was more of a reality but with no-fault divorces, divorce became much
: more easier to acquire and many people exited long-standing marriages.
[Note- this "debunking" has itself been debunked. Probably more
than 22% of people have _already_ been divorced]
"42.7 percent of all statistics are made up on the spot."
--The Hon. W. Richard Walton, Sr.
And, along the same lines:
"I really shouldn't tell a Sufi story without quoting it precisely
- but I've got about a dozen Sufi books and can't take time to look it up.
Anyway, one of the stories reminds me of the people who
want to believe ridiculous statistics just because they're from "studies"
instead of believing what's right there in their face in they're willing
to see it.
"Nasrudin's neighbor came over and asked to borrow his donkey.
Nasrudin said the donkey was not there.
At that moment, the donkey brayed.
The man said, "the donkey is here; I just heard him bray."
To which Nasrudin replied, "Who are you going to believe? Me or a donkey?"
"So I'll keep going right to the source (the donkey), the real people,
instead of what somebody else reports ... ."
Peggy Vaughan - http://www.vaughan-vaughan.com
Quoted from the Coalition for Marriage, Family and Couples Education, LLC
(CMFCE) Website, http://www.smartmarriages.com
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