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Search Result 1 
From: Bill McGinnis (bmcgin@adams.patriot.net)
Subject: FIRST PERSON TO DECLARE FOAM WAS CAUSE, "BEYOND A REASONABLE 
DOUBT" 
View: Complete Thread (16 articles)  
Original Format 
Newsgroups: sci.space.shuttle
Date: 2003-08-28 06:34:39 PST 
 

FIRST PERSON TO DECLARE FOAM WAS CAUSE, "BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT" 

Okay. I'm ready for my prize. I hereby claim to be the very first
person in the world who publicly declared that the cause of the
Columbia crash was the so-called "foam" insulation, beyond a
reasonable doubt, and that no further searching for a cause was needed.

I published this announcement in sci.space.shuttle on February 8, 2003.
(See below)


And now it's official: "the direct physical action that initiated the
chain of events leading to the loss of Columbia and her crew" was the
impact of the 1.7 pound chunk of foam which struck the wing. Source:
Front page, the Washington Post, 8-27-03.

  Bill McGinnis
  bmcgin@patriot.net

  http://GeneralDiagnostics.net

So if anyone was offering a reward to the first person who figured out the 
cause "beyond a reasonable doubt" and published his findings, please send 
the check to me at:

   Bill McGinnis
   GeneralDiagnostics.net
   P.O. Box 2543
   Alexandria, VA 22301

  

"BUT HOW COULD YOU BE SO CERTAIN SO SOON?," you may ask.

Here's how (in my opinion)


   When any two unusual events occur in such a way that the earlier
   event could have "caused" the later event, the earlier event 
   probably did cause the later event. 


The reason I was able to see that the foam impact could have 
caused the crash was that I remembered the formula for momentum,
p=mv, vaguely from high school physics. So I immediately calculated
that 2 pounds at 500 MPH was the same as 200 pounds at 5 MPH, which was
what I did (briefly) as a fullback in high school, hitting the line.
And if I could run over defenders with that amount of momentum, I
could surely have broken some tiles.

After I made that connection, realizing that broken tile(s) could
easily doom the craft, it was a slam dunk decision. There could be no
other reasonable cause.

Too bad nobody in NASA management had high school football experience
plus high school physics???

Here is my original post . . .

 

                     By Rev. Bill McGinnis, Owner 
                    www.AutomobileDiagnostics.net 
                     www.GeneralDiagnostics.net 

NOTE: THIS IS MY PERSONAL OPINION ONLY. 

Based on these facts already established, we can safely now conclude that 
the foam insulation caused caused the crash of the Columbia, beyond a 
reasonable doubt. These nine facts alone are sufficient to draw this 
conclusion. 

Here is how we do it. 

ESTABLISHED FACT #1: A piece of hardened foam insulation broke off the 
Columbia on launch and struck the insulating tiles on the bottom side of 
the left wing. This fact was recorded on the video of the launch, which I 
observed on TV. Such foam insulation is rock hard, but less dense than a 
rock, according to TV reports and demonstrations. 

ESTABLISHED FACT #2: The weight of this piece was approximately two 
pounds. This fact was reported on TV, presumably obtained by multiplying 
the estimated volume of the piece of insulation by its average weight per 
cubic unit of volume. 

ESTABLISHED FACT #3: The relative speed of impact of the insulation piece 
against the tiles was approximately 500 miles per hour. This fact was 
reported on TV, presumably obtained by noting the speed of the vehicle at 
the moment of impact, then subtracting the estimated speed of the piece of 
insulation at that same moment. 

ESTABLISHED FACT #4: The broken piece of insulation had sharp, jagged 
edges. This fact can be derived by observing what happens when similar 
items break into pieces. Broken pottery is perhaps the closest example we 
observe in domestic human life. 

ESTABLISHED FACT #5: The force of impact of the broken piece was 
sufficient to crack or even shatter the tiles(s), particularly if all of 
that impact were concentrated on a single jagged edge and if the impact 
were a "direct hit." This fact can be derived, with certainly, from the 
following calculations and observations: First, the tiles are known to be 
"fragile," cable of breaking fairly easily. I cannot calculate an exact 
measure of fragility, but we can be sure that if they are known to be 
"fragile," as reported, then they can be broken fairly easily. Second, the 
force of impact (of a direct hit) was the same as that of a typical high 
school fullback hitting the line in a football game. Two pounds of moving 
at 500 miles per hour has the same momentum as two hundred pounds moving 
at 5miles per hour. (From physics, p=mv, momentum equals mass times 
velocity.) If you picture a two-hundred-pound high school fullback, 
crashing into the defensive line in a football game, carrying a ceramic 
football with a jagged point, you can see for sure that a "fragile" piece 
of tile would be cracked or broken on direct impact with the jagged point 
of the ceramic football. Even if the impact were at an oblique angle, not 
a direct hit, it could still be sufficient to crack or shatter a fragile 
tile. And even if the full force of the impact were not concentrated on a 
jagged edge, it could still be sufficient. 

ESTABLISHED FACT #6: The piece of insulation shattered immediately upon 
impact, turning "into dust." This fact is recorded on the video of the 
launch. 

ESTABLISHED FACT #7: Based on facts 5 and 6 above, it is certain that at 
least one of the tiles on the bottom of the left wing must have been 
cracked or shattered by the impact with the piece of insulation. Since the 
impact was sufficient to shatter the piece of insulation into dust, then 
it must have similarly been sufficient to crack or shatter at least one of 
the fragile tiles. So the impact must have been sufficiently direct and 
sufficiently concentrated to crack or shatter a tile. 

ESTABLISHED FACT #8: The sensors recorded abnormally high temperatures on 
the left wing of the Columbia shortly before it broke apart. This was 
reported on TV and has never been disputed, to my knowledge. 

ESTABLISHED FACT #9: The observed high temperatures on the left wing were 
caused by the damaged tile(s). We know we had damaged tile(s). We know we 
had abnormal high temperatures. We know that damaged tiles would cause 
high temperatures at this time during descent. (That's why the tiles were 
there in the first place: to protect the wing from the high temperatures 
of descent into the atmosphere.) 

The truth of this fact is further confirmed by John Stuart Mill's "Method 
Of Concomitant Variations." 


"Whatever phenomenon varies in any manner whenever another phenomenon 
varies in some particular manner, is either a cause or an effect of that 
phenomenon, or is connected with it through some fact of causation." 

          Source: John Stuart Mill, A System of Logic, 1843



If we conducted experiments, we would surely find that the temperature of 
the wing varied inversely with the integrity of the tiles. 
Also, as a practical matter, we frequently find that when any two unusual 
events occur in close proximity, they are related by causation. For 
example, even without knowing much about medicine, we can suspect that the 
unusual event of death was causally related to the unusual event of a 
gunshot wound. In the present case, the coincidence of the insulation 
breaking off and striking the wing, followed the wing getting hot, leads 
us to suspect a causal relationship. 

CONCLUSION: 

Now that we have established the nine facts above, the rest of the 
scenario is immediately clear: Upon re-entry, when the upper atmosphere 
began to drag against the Columbia, the damaged tile broke off, taking 
perhaps several others with it. Now with the heat-resistant tile(s) broken 
off, the underlying wing structure was not protected from the heat 
build-up. The metal softened and bent from the heat, drag built up, the 
ship tried to correct its attitude, the left wing broke off, and the 
Columbia then broke up into several pieces and crashed, killing all seven 
people aboard. 

To me, this is exactly what happened. Period. And I am confident that when 
all of the evidence has been examined, this diagnosis will be found to be 
true.

                                 # # # 






-- 
 Rev. Bill McGinnis
                        Editor - http://TheAmericanCitizen.US
                        Director - http://LoveAllPeople.org
                        Owner - http://FeaturedProducts.net 


Bill McGinnis  bmcgin@patriot.net


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